In the last decade, climate change policies have featured prominently on the public policy agenda of many African countries. Two related international activities in 2015 spurred this change. First, the United Nations Member states adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related goals as a result of the Agenda for Sustainable Development, which placed a strong emphasis on climate action.

Second, the Paris Agreement for climate change mitigation was made possible by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Following the UNFCCC, nearly all of the African countries signed the Paris Agreement, collaborating with other international parties to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as a component of their decarbonization plans in order to reach net-zero emissions.

The NDC component of the agreement was especially significant in promoting voluntary cooperation toward achieving the global goal. It suggested that the approach to emission reduction is best ‘undertaken on the basis of equity,’ and presented an opportunity for countries to set emission target levels based on critical developmental priorities. For African countries, this framework arguably meant the possibility of balancing developmental needs with global goals. But not for long. Fast forward to 2023, and African policymakers have had to walk the delicate balance between fulfilling climate-related policy conditions and pursuing industrialization for economic growth; against the backdrop of emission-related penalties and global funding cuts. 

What does this mean for the continent and how can African policymakers navigate this crossroads?

Towards a Sustainable Future: Climate Change and Africa

The case for Africa's de-carbonisation and energy transition has often been based on three main arguments. 

Firstly, considering that Africa disproportionately suffers the effects of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, it has been argued that the continent will immensely benefit from building sustainable and climate-resilient economies. Again, according to World Bank data, Africa has 60% of the world’s solar energy potential, as well as vast wind and hydro energy sources. This has powered the idea that Africa can harness its abundant renewable energy sources and leapfrog its way to clean energy use; thereby sidestepping the more tedious transition process that developed countries are currently undergoing, owing to longer established fossil fuel-reliant infrastructure. 

There is also the argument that, although the upfront investment in renewable energy infrastructure (wind turbines, solar panels) is expensive, the expense pales in relation to the energy accessibility, maintenance, environmental, and associated health costs of conventional energy. Closely linked to this argument is the idea that the global transition to renewables implies future obsolescence of non-renewable energy infrastructure, thereby raising investment profitability risks for countries that fail to transition.

On the one hand, these arguments indicate the advantages of renewable energy transition in Africa. However, they also appear to simplify what the continent’s energy priorities should be, narrowing the African energy debate to an either, or question. This brings up some challenges, especially for African countries considering a diverse energy mix; a stance which appears to threaten the ‘global’ renewable energy consensus. Up to ten African countries, including Kenya and Ghana, are considering nuclear power as a viable addition to their energy mix (IAEA, 2022). Nuclear energy already accounts for about 5% of South Africa’s electricity generation with plans for expansion, and Egypt has commenced construction of the country’s first nuclear plant. There is also rising interest in the exploration of the continent’s vast natural gas reserves which account for 13% of global reserves. Positioning renewable energy as the only viable solution to Africa’s energy needs limits the opportunity for the continent to fuel its economic development with fossil fuels like BRICS countries such as China and India have done. 

Similarly, and more significantly, Africa contributes less than 3% to global energy-related carbon emission rates (IEA, 2022). It therefore follows that accomplishing global emission goals would mostly depend on action by top emitters, 85% of which are in advanced economies. Again, Africa has vast developmental needs and priorities which are competing for limited resources. Experts project that by 2050, the population of Africa will have doubled, assuming the continent maintains its 2.5% yearly population growth rate (UN, 2022). Consequently, African governments are increasingly looking to accelerate industrialisation- the cornerstone of economic transformation around the world- to close poverty gaps, ramp up economic growth and create jobs for a growing population. The 2023 African Union Summit, which focused on accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), prioritised the ‘overall industrialisation of the Continent’ as a key theme. And even nationally, plans to boost industrialisation, support agro-industrial production and deepen manufacturing have featured in national development plans and have been the subject of targeted policy interventions in some African countries including Uganda, Ghana, Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco and South Africa. As industrialization increasingly becomes a national and regional priority, African governments have had to situate this need within the broader context of the global sustainable energy agenda; in spite of the availability of vast natural gas reserves. Like Uganda in its Third National Development Plan (2021-2025), the approach has been to pursue a ‘sustainable industrialisation’ agenda in attempting to balance domestic needs with global goals.

The Sustainability Paradox

In practice, however, the need for economic growth and development may be far more palpable than meeting environmental standards. Indeed, both are interlinked considering that livelihoods in rural African communities have become more vulnerable to climate change-induced weather fluctuations. Still, the socio-economic reality of a continent with the highest poverty rate in the world (IMF 2023) necessitates considerations beyond medium-term global climate objectives and ESG investment standards. This is because these standards focus on decarbonisation by 2050, with limited consideration for long-term economic growth for the continent. Consequently, when far more industrialised Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries compel Africa to disregard fossil fuels which drove their own industrialisation,  the result not only creates a double standard. It also limits opportunities for African countries which require economic growth and development to sustain their economies, and even build climate resilience. Perhaps, most interesting is the fact that global policies around sustainability and energy transition are often developed from the perspective of  OECD countries, whose perspectives of sustainability have become the standard. Yet, priorities differ. This played out when, at the historic COP26 climate Summit in 2021, about 20 countries (including the US, Canada and the UK) and 5 development institutions pledged to steer foreign financing away from fossil fuels into clean energy projects. This ESG investment approach restricts access to much-needed finance for African countries with unmet energy needs. 

Against this background, it may be relevant to consider what sustainability means within the African context. In other words, is ‘sustainability’ sustainable for Africa? This is relevant because sustainability has often been approached through the lens of ESG standards based on core ideas which include environmental preservation for future generations. Ironically, the renewable energy value chain involves processes that pose environmental problems in relation to mineral extraction for required components. For example, the mining of copper, an essential component for energy generation including renewables, has been a major source of environmental degradation in countries like Zambia. The same goes for cobalt mining, which is an important component of lithium-ion batteries for electric cars; with adverse effects on the Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It therefore follows that the anticipated rise in demand of these core components may exacerbate these conditions. Estimates suggest that in the next five years, global demand for copper from wind farm expansion alone will rise by an additional 5.5 million tons. While this may bring about investment opportunities on the continent, it equally presents an opportunity to redefine a strategic approach to sustainability within the African context.

The Need for Adaptive Policymaking

Situating Africa within global sustainability goals requires adaptive policy making that considers the big picture; from the macroeconomic effects of a reversal in fossil fuel extraction to the most beneficial approach to energy generation, setting realistic standards of a beneficial energy mix. The alternative, which bothers on adopting the time-bound prescribed model of complete energy transition, fails to consider some major uncertainties around the overall effect of this transition. These are key questions that need to be resolved, to drive a pragmatic policy approach.